Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
